Relationship Experts Can Predict A Divorce Based On These 4 Warning Signs

We like to think love lives somewhere between chemistry, timing, compatibility, and luck, but when it comes to what actually makes a marriage last, researchers have found patterns so predictable, they can forecast divorce with startling accuracy.

One of the most respected voices in relationship science, Dr. John Gottman, spent over forty years observing couples in a lab setting. He monitored everything from their facial expressions and word choice to heart rate and tone of voice.

What he found wasn’t random. He could predict with over 90 percent accuracy whether a couple would eventually divorce, and it almost always came down to four behaviors.

The Four Horsemen of Divorce

Gottman called them “The Four Horsemen,” and they’re easy to recognize once you know what to look for:

Criticism: Attacking your spouse's character instead of expressing a specific complaint. It often sounds like “You always” or “You never,” and makes the other person feel defective. It doesn’t just highlight a problem; it defines your spouse as the problem. Over time, it erodes their self-worth.

Defensiveness: Shifting blame, making excuses, or playing the victim when confronted. Instead of listening or taking responsibility, you self-justify and guard yourself like it’s a courtroom. Defensiveness blocks growth, invalidates the other person's feelings, and keeps the same fights on repeat because no one feels truly heard or seen. It says, “The problem is you, not me.”

Stonewalling: Shutting down emotionally, going silent, or disengaging completely. It’s the cold wall that goes up when one person is overwhelmed or done trying. It leaves the other person alone in the conflict, forced to shout into emotional emptiness. Over time, it breeds resentment, feelings of abandonment, and isolation.

Contempt: The biggest red flag of all. This is when you look down on your spouse or show disgust. Sarcasm, name-calling, eye-rolling, anything that signals disrespect or superiority. Contempt is the emotional equivalent of acid dissolving admiration, empathy, and goodwill. It says, “I’m better than you.”

Over time, these behaviors create distance, destroy trust, kill intimacy, and erode the emotional safety that relationships need to survive.

But, obviously, communication habits aren’t the only thing that influences whether a relationship thrives. Other factors like age at marriage, remarriage rates, and whether a couple lives together before tying the knot can also play a role in long-term outcomes. The Four Horsemen offer insight into how relationships fall apart, but other trends help explain when and why.

Which brings us to the big question: how many marriages are actually ending in divorce today?

Is the Divorce Rate Still 50 Percent?

Not quite. The old “half of all marriages end in divorce” statistic has dropped a bit, but not by much. First marriages today have a divorce rate closer to 40 to 45 percent. Sadly, that’s still nearly one in two.

Second marriages fare even worse, with a 60 to 67 percent divorce rate. Third marriages climb even higher. The more times people marry, the more likely they are to divorce again. Often, the same issues resurface in different relationships, especially if conflict patterns haven’t been addressed.

Does Living Together First Help or Hurt?

It depends. For years, studies showed that couples who lived together before marriage had a higher risk of divorce. More recent research has added some nuance. If a couple moves in together casually, with no plan for the future, the risk goes way up. But if the move is intentional and tied to a clear commitment, like engagement, the outcome is slightly better.

Research also reveals that strong religious involvement and supportive faith communities can significantly lower the risk of divorce when the worldview and faith commitments are shared. Alternatively, growing up in a home with divorce does raise the odds of divorce (with some stats saying up to 40%), but self-awareness and emotional maturity can help change a person's outlook on relationships and breaking negative patterns.

Conflict Isn’t the Problem

Which brings us to one of the most important habits of all: how couples handle conflict. Healthy couples argue, too, sometimes quite often, but the difference is in how they handle it. Successful relationships are built on how couples stay connected during and after conflicts.

Emotionally mature couples can regulate their tone, listen without escalating, and stay present. Interestingly, the most destructive relationships aren’t necessarily the loud ones. They’re often the ones where contempt is allowed to grow quietly, and people stop fighting because they’ve stopped caring.

Most People Were Never Taught This

That’s part of why the numbers are still discouraging. Very few people were taught how to handle conflict healthily and model what they saw growing up, or what they absorbed from movies and social media. We react like children, either by blowing up or shutting down.

It’s no wonder that even outside of marriage, conflict wreaks havoc. It causes tension in friendships, distance with siblings and parents, drama with roommates or coworkers, and unresolved issues with parents. Wherever closeness exists, conflict will eventually show up. The question is whether or not we can meet it with maturity.

Still, if you recognize any of the Four Horsemen in your communication patterns, it doesn’t mean your relationship is doomed. What matters most is what happens next. Can you name it, talk about it, and try something different? For those who want to turn things around, here are a few practical ways to start:

Talk to Each Other With No Agenda

Not everything needs to be a debrief, a strategy session, or another round of "What are we doing wrong?" Spend time each day just talking, no pressure. Laugh about a meme or a memory from when you first met. Choose a go-to “safe zone” you both enjoy, like movies or UFC. The last thing your interactions need is more pressure.

The Power of a Sincere Apology

A real apology disarms defensiveness and signals a willingness to grow. The most effective apologies include four key ingredients: remorse, responsibility, and a desire to change. And even just one small, honest apology can interrupt a toxic cycle and open the door to reconnection. Apologies are definitely a two-way street, but someone still has to take the first step. And while choosing softness and self-control might feel hard, so is living in a home steeped in tension or constant reactivity.

Temporarily Outsource the Kids

If you have children, ask your most trusted friend or family member to take them for a couple of hours so you can get away for quality time. If that’s not an option, stick them in front of a movie guilt-free and have a date night in the next room.

Relieve Pressure With Movement

Before you try to talk about anything heavy, go on a walk, or let your spouse take a walk, whoever needs it most. It doesn't have to be long, but it'll lower stress hormones, help regulate your nervous system, and give you both a chance to exhale. Walking side by side is also easier than sitting across a table when you're tense. It shifts the emotional geometry.

Help Each Other Decompress

If your spouse is fried and snippy, it doesn’t always mean they’re done with you. It may mean they’re done with everything. Instead of taking it personally, say, “I’ll cover the kids. Go shower or take a walk. Then let’s talk.” Give what you hope to get. Emotional generosity is often the thing that breaks the cycle.

Choose Love Like a Grown-Up

You don’t have to feel in love to act in love. The feeling follows the action, not the other way around. Say the kind thing and do the loving thing. You’re not faking it; you're acting like the person you aspire to be.

Share a Spiritual Practice

Pray together. Go to church. Read a Psalm.. Even five minutes of shared spiritual intention shifts the atmosphere. When you stop talking to God together, you often stop talking to each other. A shared spiritual rhythm is often a lifeline for many couples.

Cut the Noise & Limit Scrolling.

If you’re constantly comparing your relationship to curated Instagram marriages or TikTok trauma dumps, you’re poisoning your own well. Limit the scrolling. Log off and focus on improving and loving the life that's uniquely yours.

Get Better Sleep and Food

Seriously. Sometimes the marriage isn’t on fire. You’re just both depleted and sleep-deprived. Cut back on processed junk, drink tons of water, and go to bed early two nights in a row. Then see if things still feel hopeless. Oftentimes times a nervous system intervention spills over into other areas of your life.

Don’t Aim for Bliss, Just One Good Hour

When things feel heavy, stop trying to fix the whole relationship. Just go for one good hour. Stack enough of those, and you’ll start to feel like teammates again. This is where your interior life matters. If you’re constantly reacting, emotionally frayed, or consumed with blame, you’ll struggle to love anyone well. But if you’re cultivating peace, through prayer, reflection, and community, you’ll find yourself stronger and softer at the same time.

Zoom Out: This Is Bigger Than Just You

In the heat of conflict, it’s easy to narrow everything down to you vs. them, but if you can take a breath and step back, you’ll see this moment touches more than just your current frustration. It also shapes your spouse and their future self, who can still become someone wiser, warmer, and more connected if they choose growth. If you have children, it shapes them too as they learn what love, conflict, and change look like from you every day.

It shapes your perception of yourself, particularly your past self, who once longed for this connection and deserves a chance to see it handled with care, and your future self, who will live with the emotional consequences, good or bad, of the choices you make right now.

Not every marriage can be saved, but many can be if someone commits to shifting the emotional rhythm of the relationship one step at a time.